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Estimation of Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 using Real-Time Bayesian Method for India and its States

This study assesses the impact of nation-wide lockdown in slowing down the spread of the COVID-19 at the national and state level. An attempt has also been made to examine the important state-level...

by Rishabh Tyagi | On 27 May 2020

Exchange Rate Movements and Fundamentals: Impact of Oil Prices and the People’s Republic of China’s Growth

This paper identifies five factors that can capture 95% of the variance across 39 US dollar exchange rates based on the principal component method. A time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector aut...

by Hongyi Chen | On 01 Apr 2019

Examining the Trade-Off Between Price and Financial Stability in India

In recent years, many emerging economies including India have adopted inflation targeting framework. Post the global financial crisis, there is a growing debate on whether monetary policy should targe...

by Ila Patnaik | On 23 Jan 2019

The People’s Republic of China’s Long-Run Growth through the Lens of the Export-Led Growth Model

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) remarkable growth performance over the last 3 decades has been associated to very robust export growth, so much so that many refer to it as a clear example of ex...

by Jesus Felipe | On 29 Aug 2018

STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE INDIAN ECONOMY

We analyse the evolution of the Indian economy over the past six decades, particularly identifying structural breaks. We find that usually there has been a gradual change in the indicators of the ec...

by Manmohan Agarwal | On 09 Apr 2018

Econometric Estimation of Technical and Environmental Efficiency: An Application to Chemical Industry in and around Mumbai

There is a large concentration of chemical firms around Mumbai, and the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board has been actively monitoring them. However, there is a large variation in the degree of co...

by | On 13 Mar 2018

Social Rewards and the Design of Voluntary Incentive Mechanism for Biodiversity Protection on Farmland

The paper examines how endogenous social preferences could affect economic incentive design to encourage biodiversity protection on private land. A 'green' farmer may enjoy esteem from leading by exam...

by Rupayan Pal | On 22 Feb 2018

Effects of Financial Market Imperfections on Indian Firms‘ Exporting Behavior

Using data from more than 6,000 manufacturing firms in India for 1996–2008, we investigate the impact of financial constraints on the exporting behavior of Indian manufacturing firms while also focusi...

by Hiro Ito | On 21 Dec 2017

Outsourcing Under Incomplete Information

The Author considers outsourcing decision of a firm in a Cournot duopoly with incomplete information. There is incomplete information about the production technology of one firm. It is shown that outs...

by Tarun Kabiraj | On 14 Nov 2017

New Series of National Accounts- Better Estimation or Over Estimation?

The report says that the base year of GDP is also revised regularly to have it aligned with the structural shifts that the economy witnesses continuously.

by M. Singhi | On 24 Aug 2017

Households' Inflation Expectations in India: Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Global Financial Uncertainty Spill-over

Inflation expectations are an important marker for the conduct of monetary policy. Using a Bayesian structural VAR-X model that includes the inflation expectations of general public based on the Infla...

by Taniya Ghosh | On 21 Jul 2017

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Modelling :Theory And Practice

In recent years DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models have come to play an increasing role in central banks, as an aid in the formulation of monetary policy (and increasingly after th...

by DILIP NACHANE | On 04 May 2017

Chronic and Transient Poverty: Measurement and Estimation, with Evidence from China

The paper contributes to the measurement of poverty and vulnerability in three ways. First, we propose a new approach to separating poverty into chronic and transient components. Second, we provide co...

by | On 23 Aug 2016

Global Health Donors Viewed as Regulators of Monopolistic Service Providers: Lessons from Regulatory Literature

Controlling healthcare costs while promoting maximum health impact in the recipient countries is one the biggest challenges for global health donors. This paper views global health donors as the regul...

by Han Ye | On 14 Mar 2016

Shifting Preferences at the Fed: Evidence from Rolling Dynamic Multipliers and Impulse Response Analysis

The existing empirical literature on Taylor-type interest rate rules has failed to achieve a robust consensus. Indeed, the relatively common finding that the Taylor principle does not hold has fueled...

by Matthew Greenwood Nimmo | On 13 Mar 2016

Critical Review of Literature on Computable General Equilibrium Models

This model focuses on sectoral allocation of capital and labour and distribution of sectoral output. Second, Harberger-Scarf-Shoven-Whalley models, which have their roots in welfare economics. Third,...

by Zafar Iqbal | On 10 Mar 2016

Unraveling Firms: Demand, Productivity and Markups Heterogeneity

The paper develops a new econometric framework that simultaneously allows recovering heterogeneity in demand, TFP and markups across firms while leaving the correlation among the three unrestricted. W...

by Emanuele Forlani | On 09 Mar 2016

Retesting the estimation of a utility-based asset pricing model using normal mixture GARCH (1, 1)

The main purpose of this paper is to derive the process of estimating dynamic RRA with the maximum likelihood and a Bayesian method having a weakly informative prior density while assuming that the lo...

by Rohit Gupta | On 27 Feb 2016

Location Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Services: Evidence from Chinese Provincial-level data

This article analyzes the location determinants of foreign direct investment in services, both theoretically and empirically. It hypothesizes four sets of factors as the location determinants of FDI i...

by Feng Yin | On 26 Feb 2016

Indirect Inference for Dynamic Panel Models

It is well-known that maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the autoregressive parameter of a dynamic panel data model with Öxed e§ects is inconsistent under Öxed time series sample size (T) and large...

by Christian Gourieroux | On 25 Feb 2016

What Determines Payment Methods and Deal Amount in Corporate Merger and Acquisitions in Pakistan

The present study examines the determinants of payment mode choice and deal amounts in financial and nonfinancial sectors mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Pakistan, undertaken during period 2005–2012...

by Yasmeen Akhtar | On 03 Feb 2016

Global Production With Export Platforms

Most international commerce is carried out by multinational firms, which use their foreign affiliates for the majority of their foreign sales. In this paper, I examine the determinants of multinationa...

by Penn Stat | On 27 Jan 2016

World Mortality Report 2007

The report provides a comprehensive set of mortality estimates for the world’s countries. The objectives of the report are twofold. First, the results of the 2006 Revision of World Population Prospect...

by UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs UNDESA | On 20 Jan 2016

International Trade and Determinants of Price Differentials of Insulin Medicine

Empirical studies on pharmaceuticals pricing across countries have found evidence that prices vary according to per capita income. These studies are typically based on survey data from a subset of cou...

by Toshiaki Aizawa | On 29 Dec 2015

Trends in Maternal Mortality: 1990 to 2015

This report presents global, regional and country-level estimates of trends in maternal mortality between 1990 and 2015. It describes in detail the methodology employed to generate the estimates and t...

by United Nations | On 17 Dec 2015

Determinants of Unemployment Flows,LabourMarket Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies

The paper makes use of newly developped information on unemployment dynamics. On the basis of a matching model of the labour market the paper analyses the economic, institutional and policy determinan...

by Ekkehard Ernst | On 16 Dec 2015

Government Intervention in Grain Markets in India: Rethinking the Procurement Policy

This paper reviews the rice procurement operations of the Government of India from the standpoints of cost of procurement as well as effectiveness in supporting farmers’ incomes. The two channels used...

by Neha Gupta | On 02 Dec 2015

Monitoring Mortality in Forced Migrants—Can Bayesian Methods Help Us to Do Better with the (Little) Data We Have?

The global number of forced migrants is currently the highest since the Second World War. This is a major concern to public health: lack of access to safe water, food, sanitation, and inadequate shel...

by Peter Heudtlass | On 30 Nov 2015

Can We Really Measure Poverty and Identify the Poor When Poverty Encompasses Multiple Deprivations?

The paper argues that both the income/expenditure and nutritional measures of poverty suffer with their own limitations. However, for both conceptual and practical considerations, the income/expenditu...

by | On 30 Oct 2015

Natural Interest Rate: Assessing the Stance of India’s Monetary Policy under Uncertainty

Using a theoretical framework that combines the essence of Ramsay’s growth model and the New-Keynesian macrodynamics, and applying the Kalman filter estimation technique, this paper finds that Indi...

by Harendra Behera | On 16 Oct 2015

Are the World’s Poorest Being Left Behind? Reconciling Conflicting Views on Poverty and Growth

Traditional assessments of progress against poverty put no explicit weight on increasing the standard of living of the poorest—raising the consumption floor. Yet this is often emphasized by policy mak...

by Martin Ravallion | On 14 Sep 2015

Economic Policy for Revival of Mining

There is a need for public policy revival in mining sector as its contribution to GDP is declining. India has coal reserves but it is one of the highest importers of coal in the world. There is a need...

by Lekha Chakraborty | On 24 Feb 2015

India Chronic Poverty Report: Towards Solutions and A New Compact in a Dynamic Context

This report is based on decade long studies through three phases of the study project, aims to draw the attention of policy makers and concerned citizens to the gap, or chasm, between our goals, aspir...

by Aasha Kapur Mehta | On 27 Feb 2014

The New Poverty Line: A Methodology Deeply Flawed

This note discusses the Report of the Expert Group to Review the Methodology for Estimation of Poverty. The Report recommends the use of the existing official urban poverty line as the poverty lin...

by Madhura Swaminathan | On 27 Feb 2014

Bit by Bit: The Darwinian Basis of Life

All known examples of life belong to the same biology, but there is increasing enthusiasm among astronomers, astrobiologists, and synthetic biologists that other forms of life may soon be discovered o...

by Gerald F Joyce | On 10 Jul 2012

An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy

A closed model DSGE model of the Indian economy is developed and it is estimated by Bayesian Maximum Likelihood methods using Dynare. A model is build up in stages to with a number of features impo...

by Vasco Gabriel | On 28 Nov 2011

Efficiency and Productivity Growth in Indian Banking

This paper attempts to examine technical efficiency and productivity performance of Indian scheduled commercial banks, for the period 1979-2008. A model is constructed using multiple output/multiple i...

by S S Rajan | On 03 Aug 2011

Club-Convergence and Polarisation of States A Nonparametric Analysis of Post-Reform India

The objective of this paper is to study the dynamics of the distribution of regional per capita income of Indian states in the post reform period, in order to identify trends towards convergence-c...

by Sabyasachi Kar | On 20 May 2011

Liquidity Considerations in Estimating Implied Volatility

Some option series in the market are far less liquid than others. Market illiquidity can reduce the informativeness of option prices. In this paper, an alternative schemes are proposed to estimate im...

by Rohini Grover | On 09 Apr 2011

Forecasting Inflation and IIP Growth: Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model

Maintaining low and stable inflation with sustainable growth is the prime objective of any monetary authority. To achieve the prime goal, reliable forecast of macroeconomic variables play an importa...

by Dipankar Biswas | On 24 Feb 2011

Conflict Resolution through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating

If priors are deterministic (zero or unity) and conditional evidence is uncertain (lies between zero and one) then Bayesian updating will lead to posteriors that are the same as priors. This in a sen...

by Srijit Mishra | On 31 Jan 2011

Economic Growth and Financial Depth: Is the Relationship Extinct Already?

Although the finance–growth nexus has become firmly entrenched in the empirical literature, studies that question the strength of the empirical results have appeared and seem to have become more f...

by Peter L. Rousseau | On 26 Nov 2010

Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World: Probability Models and the Design of Robust Monetary Rules

The past forty years or so has seen a remarkable transformation in macro-models used by central banks, policymakers and forecasting bodies.This papers describes this trans formation from reduced-for...

by Paul Levine | On 11 Aug 2010

Understanding Fundamentalist Belief Through Bayesian Updating

Using Bayesian updating to deterministic priors persistence of fundamentalist belief like those in the mind of a terrorist is explained. Under such belief system if conditional evidence is diametric...

by Srijit Mishra | On 14 Jun 2010

Vulnerability and Coping to Disasters: A Study of Household Behaviour in Flood Prone Region of India

This paper attempts to understand the various risks faced by households living in disaster prone regions of rural India and specifically examine the effectiveness of coping mechanisms adopted by ho...

by Unmesh Patnaik | On 12 Apr 2010

Reserve Bank of India Statistics Day- Governor's Inaugural Address

The third Annual Statistics Day Conference of the Reserve Bank. It has now become a tradition for to mark the Statistics Day as a tribute to late Professor P.C. Mahalanobis and his colossal contributi...

by D Subbarao | On 02 Jul 2009

Imputation Methods for Handling Item-Nonresponse in the Social Sciences: A Methodological Review

Missing data are often a problem in social science data. Imputation methods fill in the missing responses and lead, under certain conditions, to valid inference. This article reviews several imputatio...

by Gabriele Beissel Durrant | On 02 Jun 2009

Risk Management Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

During the global financial turmoil of 2007 and 2008, no major derivative clearing house in the world encountered distress while many banks were pushed to the brink and beyond. An important reason for...

by Jayanth R Varma | On 26 May 2009

Intellectual Property Protection And Technology Transfer The Case Of Overseas R & D

This paper investigates whether, in what direction, and to what extent one mode of technology transfer – namely, overseas R&D – is influenced by the strength of intellectual property protection that h...

by Sunil Kanwar | On 15 May 2009

Growing Services in India - An Inter-Sectoral Analysis Based on State-Level Data

This study is an inter-sectoral analysis of state domestic product data to understand the determinants of the services sector growth in India during the recent years. It is a demand side analysis wh...

by Deepita Chakravarty | On 11 Aug 2008

Estimating the Effects of Global Patent Protection in Pharmaceuticals: A Case Study of Quinolones in India

In the context of the TRIPS agreement and the accompanying debate about the merits of the requirement to enforce product patents for pharmaceuticals, this paper provides a rigorously-derived estimate...

by Shubham Chaudhuri | On 27 Dec 2006