Afghanistan’s Deep Challenges and Transition Opportunities

The continued withdrawal of ISAF forces and the handover of responsibilities to Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) along with a strong Taliban military push dominated the security realm. The ANSF did not cede any territory to the Taliban, but suffered many, and likely unsustainable, casualties, including as a result of poor logistics and medevac capacities. Critical enabler deficiencies and ethnic and patronage rivalries and fissures continue to plague the ANSF and pose serious dangers to Afghanistan’s post-2014 security. While a deterioration in security is most likely, just how severe it will prove remains yet to be seen and is contingent on whether and what kind of military and financial assistance the United States and the international community continue to provide Afghanistan after 2014. Yet deep external and internal uncertainties over Afghanistan’s security and political future persisted primarily as the Government of Afghanistan refused to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) permitting the continued presence of US forces after 2014.