Blood and Hope in Afghanistan : A June 2015 Update

As the United States tries to wind down its military participation in Afghanistan’s counterinsurgency after more than a decade of struggles against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, Afghanistan’s future remains precarious at best. The Taliban and its affiliated insurgent groups, such as the Haqqani Network and Hezb-e-Islami, are still deeply entrenched. New international jihadi groups, such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), may also be trying to establish themselves in Afghanistan. An atmosphere of uncertainty regarding ongoing difficult security, political, and economic transitions has pervaded Afghanistan since the beginning of 2013. This uncertainty culminated during the highly-contested presidential election of 2014, and then somewhat eased after the installation of the National Unity Government (NUG) of President Ashraf Ghani and his chief executive officer and rival Abdullah Abdullah. But fundamental structural problems of the new government soon became visible and after eight months remained unaddressed. The country’s deep and broad political divisions and wounds, exacerbated by the presidential election, have not begun to heal. And looming on the horizon are new political crises, likely to be generated by parliamentary elections and particularly a Loya Jirga that in 2016 is supposed to reform the constitution. The Jirga could alter the basic power arrangements in Afghanistan, and will codify or undo the President-CEO structure of the National Unity Government. Moreover, the economic outlook in 2015 and for several years to come remains dim.