Integrating Urban Agriculture and Forestry Into Climate Change Action Plans: Lessons From Western Province, Sri Lanka And Rosario, Argentina

Climate change adds to the existing challenges faced by cities. Cities – as net consumers rather than producers of food – are already highly vulnerable to the disruption of critical food and other supplies. Climate change may compound this problem as rural production and food imports are increasingly adversely affected by storms, floods, shifting seasonal patterns, droughts and water scarcity, resulting in (temporary) food shortages and rising food prices. In 2007, a World Bank publication1 predicted that changing rainfall patterns will affect agricultural productivity, especially in African countries. Southern Africa would risk losing 30% of its coarse grain output by 2030, while Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe could face as much as a 50% reduction in yields by 2020. In addition, the share of arable land in tropical regions is expected to decrease. The latest assessment2 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirmed these projections. As one article in The Guardian (March 2014) reported, “the report explored a range of scenarios involving a temperature rise of two degrees or more that saw dramatic declines in production in the coming decades. Declines in crop yields will register first in drier and warmer parts of the world but as temperatures rise two, three or four degrees, they will affect everyone. In the more extreme scenarios, heat and water stress could reduce yields by 25% between 2030 and 2049. … ‘The main way that most people will experience climate change is through the impact on food: the food they eat, the price they pay for it, and the availability and choice that they have,’ said Tim Gore, head of food policy and climate change for Oxfam. … The rate of increase in crop yields is already slowing – especially in wheat – raising doubts as to whether food production will keep up with the demand of a growing population. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could lead to food price rises of between 3% and 84% by 2050.