Climate Change, Food Security and Trade Linkages in South Asia

This Briefing Paper examines the linkages between climate change, food security and trade in South Asia. Studies suggest that in Asia the heat stress due to climate change will reduce crop yields in the lower latitude areas, such as South Asia, while it will raise yields in the cooler mid- to high-latitude areas (Lou and Lin, 1999).8 Temperature rise is expected to lessen yields of important crops such as wheat and rice in parts of South Asia where they are cultivated close to their upper temperature threshold. Cereals production is expected to decline at least 4-10 percent by the end of the 21st century. Non-irrigated wheat and rice will be hard hitting since a temperature increase of 2.20C is expected, or may incur loss in net farm revenue between 9-25 percent (Lal 2007).