Demographics and Climate Change: Future Trends And their Policy Implications for Migration

This working paper seeks to explore the potential impact of future demographic and climate change on migration patterns in developing countries, in order to identify policy implications for international development and evidence gaps that could be plugged with appropriate new research.After a brief review of definitions and terms, it reviews both the pattern of anticipated demographic change to 2050, and likely climate change trends and impacts over the same timescale, before going on to explore ways in which demographic and climate change might combine to influence future migration patterns. Four case study analyses complement this working paper, focusing on national trends in four developing countries – Bangladesh, Ghana, Ethiopia and Sudan. A final section then seeks to draw out the implications of such patterns for international development policy.