Weather Variability, Agriculture and Rural Migration: Evidence from State and District Level Migration in India

This study explores the three-way linkage between weather variability, agricultural performance and internal migration in India. It estimates a two-equation model, which examines variations in weather that influence crop yield and identifies the resulting effect on the rate of migration. The analysis uses two variants of migration data - inter-state out-migration and intra-state district-level in-migration - reported in the Indian Census. The results suggest that the impact of yield changes on the migration rate depend on both the inter-play between inter- and intra-district migration rates as well as the crop under consideration. Migration is certainly a potential adaptation strategy for people adversely affected by the impact of weather and climate change. The findings suggest that weather related changes in agricultural productivity do contribute to migration in India; however, these inter-linked effects have, at least thus far, been relatively small.