The 'Poorest Might Catch up': Convergence vs. Pseudo-convergence

Public welfare policies in developing countries have a Rawlsian perspective; they seek to uplift the poor, the poorest of the poor in particular. Policies to enable the poor to catch up with the rich are generally two-fold, viz., inclusive growth, and redistributive (transfer) programmes. This paper proposes twin concepts and measures of convergence (κ*) and pseudo-convergence (pseudo-κ*) to characterize such outcomes. Unlike the conventional measures of convergence, they can contra-distinguish outcomes during economic growth as against decay. Illustrations based on estimates of per capita GDP and consumption across countries in the world show divergence and pseudo-divergence between 1993 and 2011. [IGIDR WP-2014-005].