Monsoon 2013: Estimating the Impact on Agriculture

This paper attempts to project the likely impact of robust monsoon rains of 2013 on the Agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in India. The model hypothesizes that the performance of agriculture in India depends upon (1) investments in agriculture (private and public); (2) agricultural price incentives; and (3) rainfall. A log-linear model fitted over 1996-97 to 2012-13 period can explain 95 percent of the variations in agri-GDP with all variables being statistically significant. The model also forecasts that the agri-GDP growth rate for the agricultural year (July-June) 2013-14 is likely to be between 5.2% and 5.7%. [ICRIER working paper No. 269]