An Investigation into Changes in Nagaland's Population between 1971 and 2011

Nagaland’s population decreased during 2001–11 after growing at abnormally high rates during the past few decades. This is the first time since independence that a state in India has witnessed an absolute decline in population. In this context, the paper examines the census population estimates for internal consistency. It also tries to validate the census estimates using information on birth and death rates from other demographic surveys and information on gross school enrolment (6–14 years population) and the electorate (adult population). The paper also checks if illegal/ unaccounted international immigration and politically-motivated manipulation could explain the abnormal changes in Nagaland’s population. [IEG Working Paper No. 316].