Growth and Election Outcomes in a Developing Country
Published By: NIPFP on eSS | Published Date: October, 31 , 2011With the exception Brander and Drazen (2008), who use a comprehensive cross-country
database consisting of both developed and developing countries, the hypothesis that rapid
growth helps incumbents win elections has been tested exclusively for the developed
countries (e.g., Ray Fair 1978). But since sustained rapid growth offers the prospect of
pulling vast numbers of the voters out of poverty within a generation, such an effect is far
more likely to be present in the developing rather than developed countries. In this paper,
the first test of the hypothesis is done for a large developing and poor country, India,
which has seen its economy grow 8 to 9 percent recently. It is generalized that the Fair
model to allow for multiple candidates instead for just two and then test it using crossstate
data.
The data is used on 422 candidates in the 2009 parliamentary elections and show that the
candidates of incumbent parties in high-growth states have much better prospects of
victory than those in low-growth states. [Working Paper No. 2011-92]. URL: [http://www.nipfp.org.in/newweb/sites/default/files/wp_2011_92.pdf].
Author(s): Poonam Gupta, Arvind Panagariya | Posted on: Oct 31, 2011 | Views(1298) | Download (214)