Technical Study on Retirements and Pension Projections of the Central Government

The general concern over the salary and pension liabilities of the government and the concomitant government announcements in the recent past to contain them at a sustainable level need to be contingent upon realistic assessment of future growth in such manpower related cost of the government. The prevailing state of information and analysis on these issues seem to be highly unsatisfactory and conclusions have mostly been drawn on the basis of assumptions, which are neither founded on reality nor backed by rigorous theory. The purpose of this study is to provide rational estimates of the future behaviour of government employment and pension liabilities by applying theoretically justifiable methods on available data so that informed decisions can be taken regarding manpower planning in government. The study also seeks to highlight the weaknesses of the pension administration, which can lead to gross misuse. [Working Paper Series Paper No. 1/2002-PC]