Electricity Demand Analysis and Forecasting- The Tradition is Questioned

The present paper seeks to cast scepticism on the validity and value of the results of all earlier studies in India on energy demand analysis and forecasting based on time series regression, on three grounds. (i) As these studies did not care for model adequacy diagnostic checking, indispensably required to verify the empirical validity of the residual whiteness assumptions underlying the very model, their results might be misleading. (ii) As the time series regression approach of these studies did not account for possible non-stationarity (i.e., unit root integratedness) in the series, their significant results might be just the misleading result of spurious regression. (iii) These studies, by adopting a methodology suitable to a developed power system in advanced economies, sought to correlate the less correlatables in the context of an underdeveloped power system in a less developed economy. [Working Paper No. 312]