Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia

Capitalizing on the most recent worldwide estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture production, this paper assesses the economic effects of climate change for Southeast Asian countries through 2080. However, the uneven distribution of productivity losses across global regions would bring significant structural adjustments in world wide agriculture production and trade, leaving the developed country as the net loser. The expected increase of crop import dependence in the coming decades would make most Southeast Asian economies suffer more welfare losses through deterioration of terms of trade. To cope with the potential agricultural damages, Southeast Asia must concentrate on reversing its current trend of declining agricultural productivity. [ ADBI WP no 131]