Demographic Transformation in South Asia: Implications for Rice Research and Development

The demographic structure of South Asian countries are rapidly transforming, which can greatly influence future rice production and consumption in the region. Literature on the impact of demographic transformation on the nature and organization of rice farming are scanty. This paper examines the depth and breadth of demographic transformation and its ramifications on rice farming in South Asia. We use primary long-run panel household data of Bangladesh and secondary time-series data from five major rice growing countries of South Asia. The data were analyzed using simple descriptive statistical methods. Results show that South Asia is observing declining trends in fertility rate, mortality rate, population growth, share of rural and agricultural population, and entry of youth in farming. But, other demographic factors such as rural outmigration of labors, ageing of farming population, and urbanization are on rising trends. These emerging trends are projected to be more rapid in coming decades, with far-reaching impacts on future rice farming mediated through labor markets and rice demand and supply.