The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe
Published By: PLOS ONE | Published Date: October, 01 , 2015The ‘permanent’ socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 is quantified by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual—i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake—we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake.
Author(s): Yasuyuki Sawada, Yoko Okuyama, Ilan Noy, William IV | Posted on: Feb 29, 2016 | Views() | Download (152)