Economic Survey 2017: Volume I, Chapter 6: Climate, Climate Change, and Agriculture

Using district-level data on temperature, rainfall and crop production, this chapter documents a long-term trend of rising temperatures, declining average precipitation, and increase in extreme precipitation events. A key finding—and one with significant implications as climate change looms—is that the impact of temperature and rainfall is felt only in the extreme; that is, when temperatures are much higher, rainfall significantly lower, and the number of “dry days” greater, than normal. A second key finding is that these impacts are significantly more adverse in unirrigated areas (and hence rainfed crops) compared to irrigated areas (and hence cereals). Applying these estimates to projected long-term weather patterns implies that climate change could reduce annual agricultural incomes in the range of 15 percent to 18 percent on average, and up to 20 percent to 25 percent for unirrigated areas. Minimizing susceptibility to climate change requires drastically extending irrigation via efficient drip and sprinkler technologies (realizing “more crop for every drop”), and replacing untargeted subsidies in power and fertilizer by direct income support. More broadly, the cereal-centricity of policy needs to be reviewed