Tracking India Growth in Real Time

This paper compares different approaches to the short term forecasting (nowcasting) of real GDP growth in India and evaluates methods to optimally gauge the current state of the economy. Univariate quarterly models are compared with bridge models that exploit the available monthly indicators containing information on current quarter developments. In the forecasting exercise pseudo real-time simulation is performed: by properly taking into account the actual publication lags of the series, the information set available is replicated to the policymaker at each point of time. [Working Paper No. 2011-90]. URL: [http://www.nipfp.org.in/newweb/sites/default/files/wp_2011_90.pdf].