Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle

Published By: BREAD on eSS | Published Date: January, 01 , 2014

The effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages are analysed over the course of the agricultural production cycle. It is shown theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harvest-stage wages over the period 2005-2010 is used to analyse this model. [BREAD Woring paper no. 409].

Author(s): Mark Rosenzweig, Christopher Udry | Posted on: Jan 13, 2014 | Views(533) | Download (619)


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