Can “Make In India” Make Jobs? The Challenges of Manufacturing Growth and High–Quality Job Creation in India

A new “Make in India” campaign to “transform India into a global manufacturing hub” aims to use manufacturing as a vehicle for job growth. Is this strategy realistic? This paper helps answer the question by describing the job growth potential of the Indian economy. Formal-sector manufacturing demonstrates the most potential for job growth under a more supportive policy regime. The paper models future employment paths for India for the next 20 years. Assuming sufficient reforms to generate East Asia-style manufacturing growth, the impact on employment and output is substantial, even if the campaign target of 100 million new manufacturing jobs remains difficult to achieve. The paper then describes a set of reforms sufficient to unleash such a manufacturing growth boom.